Over the past week New Zealand has seen the Māori Party forcefully assert that it is the true and authentic voice of Māori, and other parties equally strongly assert the Māori Party does not own Māori. Neither faction has provided factual evidence for their position although Shane Jones moved in that direction with an off–the-cuff remark about voting trends that was more anecdotal than objective.
Can voting in the 2023 election answer the question of who is the true and authentic voice of Māori? Beware the famous quote 'Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination.'
The Māori Party will doubtless claim that winning 6 of the 7 Māori electorates makes them the authentic voice.
But everyone knows not all Māori choose to vote in Māori electorates so winning them isn’t a reliable guide to the views of all Māori voters. We also know many Māori voters, for strategic reasons, give their candidate vote to one party and their party vote to another. For these reasons the size of the party vote is a more important guide to who voters’ views align best with.
If one looks for illumination, the party vote in the Māori electorate tells a strikingly different story to the one the Māori Party promotes. In each of the Māori electorates the Māori Party failed to secure a majority of the party votes cast, ranging between 23% and 38%. By contrast, the Labour Party fared much better, even with its dismal overall showing, ranging from 37% to 56%. The Māori Party did not receive more party votes than Labour in a single Māori electorate.
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The Māori Party will doubtless claim that winning 6 of the 7 Māori electorates makes them the authentic voice.
But everyone knows not all Māori choose to vote in Māori electorates so winning them isn’t a reliable guide to the views of all Māori voters. We also know many Māori voters, for strategic reasons, give their candidate vote to one party and their party vote to another. For these reasons the size of the party vote is a more important guide to who voters’ views align best with.
If one looks for illumination, the party vote in the Māori electorate tells a strikingly different story to the one the Māori Party promotes. In each of the Māori electorates the Māori Party failed to secure a majority of the party votes cast, ranging between 23% and 38%. By contrast, the Labour Party fared much better, even with its dismal overall showing, ranging from 37% to 56%. The Māori Party did not receive more party votes than Labour in a single Māori electorate.
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What about the Māori Party’s performance in the general electorates? Before looking at the results it’s helpful to have an indication of how many Māori choose to enrol and vote in them:
• Statistics New Zealand estimated in June 2023 the number of Māori aged 18 and over was 583,600.
• At 1 October 2023, 515,597 Māori had enrolled to vote with 49 percent (253,232) on the general roll.
• 262,365 had enrolled on the Māori roll. (By 23 November 2023, the number had increased to 291,564.)
• In the Māori electorates the Māori Party received 58,237 party votes.
Support for the Māori Party in the general electorates is much lower. It only received 29,607 party votes across 65 general electorates. We don’t know how many of these votes were from Māori, but Shane Jones suggested at least some of them were from “hippies” so support for the Māori Party amongst enrolled Māori in general electorates can be no more than 11.7% and is probably less.
In conclusion then voting statistics clearly show that of enrolled Māori (who may or may not have voted) no more than around 17% gave their party vote to the Māori Party. The share amongst those who actually voted will be slightly bigger, but people who don’t bother to vote clearly don’t want to express a preference for any party.
The Māori Party’s claim to speak for all Māori is pure rhetoric. They do not own Māori.
Voting statistics are drawn from https://electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2023/statistics/index.html accessed 10 December 2023
Statisics New Zealand’s Māori population estimate is drawn from https://infoshare.stats.govt.nz (Maori Ethnic Group Estimated Resident Population by Age and Sex (1991+) (Annual-Jun)) Accessed 9 December 2023
7 comments:
The system gives absurd advantage to maori. A successful maori seat candidate is automatically dedicated to the Labour/Te Pati cause of ultimate maori control. Then all can apply their party vote to Labour in supportof more of the same. In effect the Maori seats are a race based bonus gift.
A descendent of a Maori, does
not a Maori make.
If all buy into the excepted belief that ordinary New Zealanders can disregard their true genetic reality and claim memberships of a separate yet patronized and privileged
collective within a modern democracy.
We will never get this monkey off our back.
shane jones is right & wrong. a lot of tpm votes came from the left (non-maori). but these were not hippies - these were lefties who used the reverse tactic: electorate vote labour & party vote tpm (see tdb for the nonsense behind this strategy). the idea was that labour will be forced to make a coalition with tmp and all gst off food, cg tax, wealth tax dreams would come true!
Racist electoral policies of the past must end.
Thanks for the stats Lindsay. TPM - a truly racist party pushing the hyperbole. Rodney Hide (on RCR) recently summed them up very well.
Thanks Lindsay. My take on it as a non-mathematician was that TPM got 8.5% of the party vote across NZ.
That is only people who voted, whatever colour they are.
That dilutes their support to even less of the general population which means they have the support of less than half the number of the population who call themselves Maori.
They are feisty and aggressive and will cause trouble but we must have passive resistance and let democracy take it's natural course. We have nothing to fear from their Kingitanga takeover effort. They are playing games and throwing tantrums like children. We need a united NZ on a mission to do better.
MC
Anonymous 6.17 poses an intriguing and frightening theory. Presumably, as other parties, the Te Pati mps can be expanded to total vote proportion. With half a million prospective maori voters a disturbing prospect, at least whilst Labour foolishly cooperates with the maori uber alles policy.
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