JD: Let Us First Establish the Basic Facts

Guest post on The Good Oil by JD

Time to stop fawning over TOP as the bright young things of New Zealand politics and take a look at how much of a threat they pose to the peace of mind, financial wellbeing and, by extension, the health of every Kiwi pensioner.

TOP makes several claims including:

David Farrar: Damien now anti mining

When Damien O’Connor was standing on the West Coast, he was pro mining. He was even accused of being out of step with his party.

But now he has left the West Coast, he is now passionately anti-mining. The Post reports:

David Farrar: Finally they admit there is a problem

Otago Public Health academics write:

Estimates of illicit tobacco use in Aotearoa New Zealand differ sharply. Although tobacco industry-funded studies suggest the illicit tobacco market is large and growing rapidly, independent research has consistently found much lower levels.

However, evidence that border seizures have increased, alongside rapid growth in Australia’s illicit tobacco market, suggests Aotearoa must act now to prevent illicit tobacco from becoming established and undermining efforts to reduce smoking.

Thursday July 2, 2026 

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Ryan Bridge: Should we care what the IMF thinks?

Don't you find it annoying when some economist or think tank or some 'group' comes to our country and tells us what they think we need to do to make it better?

There's the odd case where you'd want to listen. Former world leaders, current world leaders, banks who lend you money, rating agencies who dictate your cost of borrowing.

Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: Here's why I'm so stoked about the NZ Michelin launch

I totally run the risk of being way too much of a fangirl about the Michelin stars handed out, but I am so excited about this.

Mainly, I'm excited for the people who run those restaurants because I realise what this means for them. It means full bookings. It means international recognition. It means the ability to walk into a kitchen anywhere in the world and say, "I worked in a Michelin-starred restaurant," and have people know exactly what that means - and know that you're good.

Breaking Views Update: Week of 28.6.26

Thursday July 2, 2026 

News:
Nelson Tenths: Submissions sought on bill to return land to customary owners
Public submissions are being sought on a bill to return thousands of hectares of land across Nelson and Tasman to its customary owners.

In the 1830s, the Crown promised Māori in the top of the South Island that if they sold 151,100 acres of land to the New Zealand Company - they would be able to keep one-tenth.

Roy Morgan: National-led Government holds narrow majority (51%) of support in June

Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for June 2026 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) virtually unchanged at 51%, a clear lead over the Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori Parliamentary Opposition, little changed on 42%.

Mike's Minute: This is why Labour will lose the election

Labour will not have move on orders and Labour will undo the social housing changes, which don’t actually start anyway until next year.

These are their latest policies and it's these ideas and policies that will lead to their election loss.

Colinxy: Qiulae Wong - Technocratic Marxist

Qiulae Wong, current leader of The Opportunities Party (TOP), presents herself as a modern, data‑driven reformer. But when you examine her intellectual influences, policy preferences, and institutional affiliations, a very different picture emerges: a synthesis of technocracy, ESG managerialism, and soft‑Marxist redistribution — what I have elsewhere called Technocratic Marxism.

Nick Clark: Head Start Done Right - A better way to reorganise local government

The Government wants to merge New Zealand’s councils into a smaller number of big councils. A new report from The New Zealand Initiative says this is the wrong fix.

In Head Start Done Right, Senior Fellow Nick Clark says the real problem is not that we have too many councils. It is that too much power has been taken away from local communities and moved to central government.

Lindsay Mitchell 'Too sick to work' needs addressing

ACT announced welfare policy at the weekend.

Their concern is about the growth in people who are on a benefit because they are too sick to work.

Readers here will remember the distinct Sickness and Invalid's benefits that were abolished in 2013.

Kerre Woodham: How can we justify sending money overseas when our own infrastructure is failing?

Yesterday, I was talking about the amount of aid we're sending to places like Vietnam and Indonesia. Places I would venture to suggest that are showing more go ahead, more investment in infrastructure than we are. When you're looking at Vietnam, they're building one of the largest stadiums in the world, they've got fast rail underway, they're building a huge city to house much of its population – they're spending billions. It's also a place where New Zealanders travel to get first class healthcare that we can't access here.

Bob Edlin: McKee’s promotion - Maori voices....

McKee’s promotion triggers an article recognising (or maybe lamenting) there is no one Maori voice

A headline on The Spinoff today stated the obvious:

Nicole McKee’s new Act leadership role means record Māori party leaders – but no one Māori voice

The article beneath was triggered by news that Nicole McKee has become the Act Party’s new deputy leader. Both minor parties in the coalition government therefore have leaders and deputy leaders “who whakapapa Māori”.

David Farrar: Who have been the Paris Agreement Heros and Zeros

The Paris Agreement was done in 2015, designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The latest data is for 2024, so I thought it would be interesting to see which countries have had the largest decreases and increases.

Alwyn Poole: Gap grows in maths, writing.....

From NZH: “Gap grows in maths, writing: More than 90% of poor children fall behind by Year 3”

Derek Cheng writes:

“Almost all socio-economically disadvantaged children fell behind in maths last year by Year 3, with 95% below curriculum level and 70% more than a year behind.

Wednesday July 1, 2026 

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Duncan Garner: Horizons Regional Council - 14 Iwi Agreements Rushed Through in Secret?

Local councils across New Zealand are quietly locking ratepayers into long-term co-governance arrangements without any honest conversation about the final bill. This week at Horizons Regional Council, councillors are being asked to progress 14 separate Mana Whakahono ā Rohe agreements under the Resource Management Act. These deals require staff, lawyers, consultants, and ongoing administration potentially forever, yet councils are treating basic financial questions from elected members as a problem.

We look at the growing culture of information overload inside local government, where massive agenda papers are dumped on councillors right before a vote. With major central government reforms coming to replace the RMA framework, rushing these commitments through on the hoof makes no sense. Ratepayers deserve to know where their money is going, especially when every dollar spent on bureaucracy is a dollar not spent on fixing roads and upgrading infrastructure.

Click to view

Clive Bibby: The Aspirational Element

It would seem like stating the obvious when identifying one human characteristic that sets individuals apart from their contemporaries.

We can talk about “courage, natural sports talent, above average IQ or abnormal leadership qualities” - to name but a few.

Francis Menton: What's Up With The Endangerment Finding Litigation?

Have you heard of the “Endangerment Finding” (EF)? You have if you have been reading this blog for any period of time. The 2009 EF is likely the most consequential, expensive and destructive regulatory action ever put in place by the federal bureaucracy. In that action, EPA claimed to find that carbon dioxide and several other so-called “greenhouse gases” constitute a “danger” to human health and welfare. Using the EF as the predicate, the administrative state under the Obama and Biden presidencies implemented dozens of major regulations intended to transform the entire energy sector of the U.S. economy. Obama/Biden regulations based on the EF sought, for example, to force the closure of all fossil-fuel based power plants; to end the production of internal-combustion-based cars in favor of electric cars; to restrict drilling for oil and for natural gas; to halt construction of pipelines; and many, many other such things.