Climate change has been occurring for millions, in fact billions of years. Nearly all of it without any human influence. Now suddenly, according to the climate alarmists, humans are responsible for climate change, even though Carbon Dioxide levels have reached as high as 7000ppm in the past. They are at a very low 410ppm at present. Was it all those dinosaurs emitting CO2?
What used to be called global warming was changed to climate change because from 1998 the earth has actually cooled slightly, though the cooling has increased in recent years, especially in the northern hemisphere. The cooling was an embarrassment for the climate alarmists.
Climate change covers anything.
NATURAL PROCESSES WHICH CAUSE CLIMATE CHANGE
The sun is the major influence causing climate change. But there is another important influence and that is the ocean currents-namely the Gulf Stream.
Variations in the Suns Intensity: The suns intensity varies over an 11 year cycle. The variation is about 0.1%. Even this small fluctuation can affect the earth. The earth orbits the sun in paths which are approximately elliptical. The path can vary slightly. Sometimes the earth is a little further from the sun and sometimes closer. The earth wobbles on its axis as it spins around, and the tilt of the earth varies as well. Right now a solar minimum is underway. The sun has almost no sunspots. A sunspot is an area of intense magnetic activity on the surface of the sun. The absence of sunspots lets more cosmic rays through, which seeds clouds in the upper atmosphere, and these extra clouds cause a cooling of the Earth. In addition, less sun activity means less radiation reaching the earth and this also causes a cooling. The sun is in the trough of the 11 year cycle right now. The solar cycle affects the Earth’s weather and climate. Right now there is a cooling.
Diagram: Author
The diagram show the exaggerated elliptical orbit of the earth around the sun
The shape of the ellipse changes over a period of 100,000 years.
Milankovich Cycles: The larger changes of the earth occur at regular intervals. These changes are called the Milankovich cycles. They affect the amount of solar radiation striking the earth. The Earth orbits the sun in paths approximately elliptical . These changes in the Earth’s orbit occur over 100,000 years and this coincides with the glacial periods. The shape of the Earth’s orbit is the Eccentricity. The angle the earth’s axis is tilted with respect to the earth’s orbital plane is the Obliquity. This has varied between 22.1 and 24.5 degrees. This cycle spans about 41,000 years. The direction the earth’s axis is pointed is the Precession. As the earthrotates, it wobbles slightly on its axis. This wobble is due to tidal forces caused by the gravitational influences of the sun and moon. This cycle lasts about 26,000 years. Axial precession makes seasonal contrasts more extreme in one hemisphere and less extreme in the other. It also changes the timing of the seasons.
Diagram; Wikipedia Commons. Author: NASA, Mysid.
Diagram: NASA. Author: Robert Simmons
The top diagram shows the Tilt of the Earth’s axis, (the obliquity), and the lower diagram shows the wobble of the axis, (precession).
The Gulf Stream
The Gulf Stream takes warm water from the tropics into the Northern Hemisphere. For reasons I won’t go into here, if the gulf stream slows or even stops, then the Northern Hemisphere will cool significantly. Scientists have confirmed that in recent times the Gulf Stream has indeed slowed. This is probably reflected in the RECORD low temperatures experienced in the Northern Hemisphere winters over the past three years. These are never mentioned on TV, only the heat waves of recent times. The heat waves are nothing to do with humans, but are caused by the formation of heat domes- a natural phenomenon Readers can research heat domes for themselves.
Volcanoes can affect Climate: A large cloud of ash can stop the sun’s radiation from reaching the earth, and so cooling can occur. When Mt Pinatubo erupted in the Philippines on June 15th 1991, an estimated 20 million tonnes of Sulphur Dioxide and ash particles blasted more than 20km into the atmosphere.
The most significant climate impacts from volcanic injections into the stratosphere come from the conversion of Sulphur Dioxide to Sulphuric Acid which condenses rapidly in the stratosphere to form fine sulphate aerosols. (Note: just above the Earth’s surface is the troposphere, then just above that is the stratosphere).The aerosols increase the reflection of radiation from the sun back into space, cooling the Earth’s lower atmosphere or troposphere. The Pinatubo cloud was the largest Sulphur Dioxide cloud ever observed in the stratosphere since the beginning of such observations by satellite in 1978. It caused what is believed to be the largest aerosol disturbance in the stratosphere in the 20th century. It cooled the earth’s surface for about three years following the eruption by as much as 0.8 deg C.
Photo: USGS. The Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1991
The huge cloud of volcanic ash and gas rising above Mt Pinatubo in the Philippines on June 12th 1991. Three days later the volcano exploded with the second largest volcanic eruption on Earth in the 20thCentury.
El Nino and La Nina: During normal conditions in the Pacific Ocean, trade winds blow west along the equator taking warm water from South America towards Asia. To replace the warm water, cold water rises from the depths. El Nino and La Nina are two opposing climate patterns which break these normal conditions. Scientists call these phenomena El Nino Southern Cycle (ENSO). During El Nino, trade winds weaken. Warm water is pushed back East towards the West coast of the Americas. El Nino can affect weather significantly. La Nina has the opposite effect of El Nino. Trade winds are even stronger than usual pushing more warm water towards Asia. Both El Nino and La Nina can have global impacts on climate. They can lead to droughts, heavy rains and flooding, wildfires, high temperatures, and strong winds. Of course weather events due entirely to El Nino and La Nina cannot be blamed on humans putting more CO2 into the air. Both El Nino and La Nina are natural weather events.
In New Zealand El Nino typically gives stronger or more frequent winds from the West in summer leading to an elevated risk of drier than normal conditions in East coast areas and more rain than normal in the West- due to the barrier effect of the Southern Alps and main North Island ranges. In winter, colder southerly winds tend to prevail while in spring and autumn southwesterlies tend to be stronger and more frequent. During particularly strong El Nino phases these effects can be more intense. In 2015/16 NZ experienced a very strong El Nino. There was a severe drought on the East Coast.
La Nina events have a different impact on New Zealand. More North Easterly winds are characteristic, which tends to bring moist rainy conditions to the North East of the North Island and reduced rainfall to the South and South West of the South Island. Some areas such as Central Otago and South Canterbury can experience drought in both El Nino and La Nina. Warmer than normal temperatures typically occur over much of the country during La Nina, although there are regional exceptions.
Here’s what the Sydney Morning Herald wrote about El Nino and La Nina in November 2021:
The Bureau of Meteorology declared on November 23 that a La Nina event was in full swing, with climate scientists saying it would bring cooler temperatures, more rainy days, and higher risks of extreme weather.
The La Nina is likely to hold until at least January, and weather experts are warning the increased rainfall will heighten the chance of flooding, with soils already saturated and rivers and catchments full. In fact, it’s already shaping up to be the country’s coolest spring since 1999 and the wettest spring since 2011.As a giant island, Australia cops weather from all directions. One of the main drivers of our climate, particularly for those living in eastern parts of the country, periodically roars out of the Pacific. Whether it’s an El Nino bringing extreme droughts or a La Nina whipping up severe tropical cyclones and floods, farmers and firefighters and almost everybody else have cause to keep a wary eye on subtle temperature changes in the waters to Australia’s north-east.
The impact of El Nino and La Nina on climate and weather should not be under estimated. When El Nino produced high temperatures in 2015, climate alarmists were quick to label it as one of the hottest years in recent times and put it down to humans putting Carbon Dioxide and Methane into the atmosphere and hence causing global warming. It was nothing to do with humans, but simply a natural event caused by El Nino.
I hope readers can see a distinction between Climate and Weather. We might say the Siberia has a cold climate. That goes on from day to day and year to year. Superimposed on this it rains, snows, blows etc. This is weather.
Carbon Dioxide and Methane do NOT cause global warming/climate change nor any adverse weather events. The bad news is that the sun is in a period of very low activity and scientists have confirmed that the Gulf Stream is slowing. Looking at the past, many scientists are predicting that we may be going into another Little Ice Age. So make the most of the warmth.
Ian Bradford, a science graduate, is a former teacher, lawyer, farmer and keen sportsman, who is writing a book about the fraud of anthropogenic climate change.
The huge cloud of volcanic ash and gas rising above Mt Pinatubo in the Philippines on June 12th 1991. Three days later the volcano exploded with the second largest volcanic eruption on Earth in the 20thCentury.
El Nino and La Nina: During normal conditions in the Pacific Ocean, trade winds blow west along the equator taking warm water from South America towards Asia. To replace the warm water, cold water rises from the depths. El Nino and La Nina are two opposing climate patterns which break these normal conditions. Scientists call these phenomena El Nino Southern Cycle (ENSO). During El Nino, trade winds weaken. Warm water is pushed back East towards the West coast of the Americas. El Nino can affect weather significantly. La Nina has the opposite effect of El Nino. Trade winds are even stronger than usual pushing more warm water towards Asia. Both El Nino and La Nina can have global impacts on climate. They can lead to droughts, heavy rains and flooding, wildfires, high temperatures, and strong winds. Of course weather events due entirely to El Nino and La Nina cannot be blamed on humans putting more CO2 into the air. Both El Nino and La Nina are natural weather events.
In New Zealand El Nino typically gives stronger or more frequent winds from the West in summer leading to an elevated risk of drier than normal conditions in East coast areas and more rain than normal in the West- due to the barrier effect of the Southern Alps and main North Island ranges. In winter, colder southerly winds tend to prevail while in spring and autumn southwesterlies tend to be stronger and more frequent. During particularly strong El Nino phases these effects can be more intense. In 2015/16 NZ experienced a very strong El Nino. There was a severe drought on the East Coast.
La Nina events have a different impact on New Zealand. More North Easterly winds are characteristic, which tends to bring moist rainy conditions to the North East of the North Island and reduced rainfall to the South and South West of the South Island. Some areas such as Central Otago and South Canterbury can experience drought in both El Nino and La Nina. Warmer than normal temperatures typically occur over much of the country during La Nina, although there are regional exceptions.
Here’s what the Sydney Morning Herald wrote about El Nino and La Nina in November 2021:
The Bureau of Meteorology declared on November 23 that a La Nina event was in full swing, with climate scientists saying it would bring cooler temperatures, more rainy days, and higher risks of extreme weather.
The La Nina is likely to hold until at least January, and weather experts are warning the increased rainfall will heighten the chance of flooding, with soils already saturated and rivers and catchments full. In fact, it’s already shaping up to be the country’s coolest spring since 1999 and the wettest spring since 2011.As a giant island, Australia cops weather from all directions. One of the main drivers of our climate, particularly for those living in eastern parts of the country, periodically roars out of the Pacific. Whether it’s an El Nino bringing extreme droughts or a La Nina whipping up severe tropical cyclones and floods, farmers and firefighters and almost everybody else have cause to keep a wary eye on subtle temperature changes in the waters to Australia’s north-east.
The impact of El Nino and La Nina on climate and weather should not be under estimated. When El Nino produced high temperatures in 2015, climate alarmists were quick to label it as one of the hottest years in recent times and put it down to humans putting Carbon Dioxide and Methane into the atmosphere and hence causing global warming. It was nothing to do with humans, but simply a natural event caused by El Nino.
I hope readers can see a distinction between Climate and Weather. We might say the Siberia has a cold climate. That goes on from day to day and year to year. Superimposed on this it rains, snows, blows etc. This is weather.
Carbon Dioxide and Methane do NOT cause global warming/climate change nor any adverse weather events. The bad news is that the sun is in a period of very low activity and scientists have confirmed that the Gulf Stream is slowing. Looking at the past, many scientists are predicting that we may be going into another Little Ice Age. So make the most of the warmth.
Ian Bradford, a science graduate, is a former teacher, lawyer, farmer and keen sportsman, who is writing a book about the fraud of anthropogenic climate change.
8 comments:
The Climate Covid Cult activists care not one whit for the 'science' they care for only two things.....taxes and funding and they'll do what they can to ensure those are both long lasting and large.
Our MSM and woke politicians always confuse weather with climate but only if it fits the AGW narrative.
They studiously ignore any weather events that don't fit the pattern.
An excellent post, unfortunately it won't change a thing, there's too much prestige and money tied up in boosting climate change. It's the perfect cause, nothing we do will fix it and any natural event can be used to 'prove' it's happening and it's worse than we thought.
The current hot weather in Europe and rain in New Zealand are the latest 'proof' that climate change is real and disastrous.
The latest madness seems to be restricting nitrogen fertilisers to save us from ourselves. Somehow if we just reduce our stock levels by 50% and reduce world food supply we'll be saved.
For persons who believe the link between CO2 generation/reduced absorption and rapid climate change is a myth and that most of the world's scientists are mistaken, then best not to strongly and openly associate the notion with the Right. It deters many prospective voters and thus risks perpetrating politicians with several unrelated agenda more sinister for most.
What the Government, federatd farmers, Fonterra and the greens fail to understand:
All farming in NZ, be it forestry, agriculture or horticulture has one thing in common - they are all carbon farmers - they take CO2 from the atmosphere and change it into useable produce such as lumber, milk , cheese, butter, meat, wool, bread, cereals, houses, furniture. No farmer can be carbon negative ( generate more carbon waste) - they are all carbon positive ( take more carbon from the atmosphere) therefore there is no way any farmer should be taxed.
It is just common sense, makes scientific sense, and is indisputable.
Habibullo Abdussamatov said the next mini Ice Age starts around 2017 and could last 200 years.
At 0.1% of the world's Co2 emissions, nothing that anyone or all of us in NZ can do is going to have any measurable effect on the world's climate, so let's accept this and move on to something constructive. If the sea level is rising let's put our efforts and money into mitigating the potential for damage. Equally if our rainfall is to become more erratic, use our resources to increase our water storage capacity and improve our rivers ability to drain floodwater.
MAGA! We won't get fooled again.
one of the best explanations on weather and climate i have seen it is that simple. I cant believe the wish wash from the so called experts and our stupid politicians.
Costing all and sundry an absolute fortune with the funding going to the large corporations and another form of control??
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