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Wednesday, September 14, 2022

Point of Order: Something more than huff and puff?



Our gentailers report good progress with their renewable energy developments

New Zealand’s gentailers are making big strides towards their collective goal of decarbonising the electricity production system.

A new wind farm to be built by Mercury at Kaiwera Downs, south of Gore, is the latest example of the electricity sector’s commitment to building new renewable generation, helping (as the company says} to move the dial towards a decarbonised country.

Earlier this year Contact Energy reported “strong progress” on delivery of its Contact26 strategy, which is focussed on leading NZ’s decarbonisation by connecting customers with its renewable development pipeline:

* A $300m investment approved to develop a new 51.4MW geothermal power station at Te Huka, near Taupō, targeting onstream in Q4 2024;

* Good progress on the 168MW Tauhara geothermal power station development which will supply around 3.5% of NZ’s total electricity demand by the end of next year;

* Growing the development pipeline by securing land access rights to support the development of wind projects through the Roaring40s partnership and entering a joint-venture agreement with Lightsource bp initially to develop up to 200MW of solar power;
 
* Ongoing strategic review of thermal assets supporting the announcement of the closure of Te Rapa next year, on track to more than halve its FY21 scope 1 and 2 carbon emissions by 2026.

Meanwhile, Genesis Energy reports that its joint venture with FRV Australia to build up to 500 MW of solar capacity has teams assessing sites throughout the country. Four high-priority sites have been identified and along with FRV it plans to announce the first construction site by the end of 2022.

It says its fixed-price gas-supply contracts and coal purchased well in advance of global supply issues have cushioned NZ’s electricity system from price shocks seen elsewhere in the world.

The company remains on track to meet its Science Based Target of sustainably reducing 1.2m tonnes of annual carbon by FY25 compared with FY20, however, annual emissions will fluctuate depending on weather conditions and demand-driven use of thermal generation. FY21 saw relatively high emissions But FY22 emissions declined by 1.7m tonnes to 2.2m .

Meridian Energy, which is already fully renewable, says its Harapaki wind farm in Hawkes Bay is expected to cost an additional $53m (13%). This will increase total project capital costs from the original $395m announced in February 2021 to $448m.

The original first power milestone of June 2023 and full power by June 2024 both remain on schedule in the project timeline, while the overall wind farm capacity of 176 MW is unchanged.

Meridian’s CEO Neal Barclay says multiple risks have eventuated since bulk earthworks started in September 2021 and their magnitude exceeded cost expectations.

“The first construction season at Harapaki has been one of the wettest on record, with more than a metre of rain on site in the last 3 months of 2021, while the first quarter 2022 saw record rainfall totals and damage inflicted by Cyclone Dovi.

“We have enjoyed more favourable weather conditions since April 2022, which has helped maintain our overall programme, however that has required additional civil crews”.

Barclay says the combined impacts of the COVID pandemic, inflationary pressures and resource constraints will impact the project’s overall costs.

“The increase in inflationary pressures as well as poor weather and COVID have combined to deliver an unavoidable impact on our project. To maintain the project timeline, the team at Harapaki has also had to come up with innovative roading design, which adds cost but mitigates future risk.

“Harapaki’s economics remain very sound, and the renewable development outlook in NZ has been made even more compelling by the government’s Emissions Reduction Plan”, Barclay says..

In detailing its latest project Mercury says it has executed contracts for the procurement and construction of the first stage of the Kaiwera Downs 43MW wind farm. It will cost $115m and lifts Mercury’s total commitment to new renewable wind generation to almost $600m since 2019.

It says the project is part of a significant renewable growth pipeline for Mercury, with several other renewable projects under investigation

“Mercury is committed to supporting NZ’s decarbonisation goals. Stage 1 of the Kaiwera Downs Wind Farm is the next cab off the rank in our pipeline of new renewable generation,” says CEO Vince Hawksworth.

“This comes as we near completion of our $480m Turitea Wind Farm in the Manawatū. Our decision to proceed with Kaiwera Downs is an exciting next step, and by no means the last,” says Hawksworth.

The 10 turbines of Stage I will add enough new renewable power to run 66,000 EVs. A second tranche of the build will complete the 240MW that has been consented on the site as the transition to a lower carbon economy progresses”.

Hawkesworth notes while there is continued uncertainty around the future of NZAS, New Zealand needs more renewable generation to be built.

“We’ve staged the construction of this wind farm so that the initial 10 turbines are constructed now, with the ability to follow swiftly with the rest, and we continue to assess commercial conditions and prepare to proceed with other projects in our pipeline.”

The electricity sector’s investment in new renewable generation has a key role in ensuring NZ’s transition to a low carbon future, with the country on track for over 90% renewable electricity in the next 3-5 years.

“The government’s Emissions Reduction Plan sent a clear signal that collective effort across the electricity sector is needed towards the goal of decarbonising the economy,” says Hawksworth.

He points out — no doubt for the benefit of climate change warriors — that from electrification of NZ’s transport fleet to greater electrification of industrial processes, a reliable, low-carbon, and affordable electricity system underpins many of the country’s pathways to address climate change

“In less than twelve months, from having no operating wind generation Mercury has become New Zealand’s largest wind generator.We are embarking on a major period of growth in a rapidly changing world that is increasingly recognising the urgency to decarbonise.”

The Kaiwera Downs Wind Farm project is fully consented, and construction crews are expected to mobilise to site in October. The full construction programme is expected to take around a year.

Vestas will supply 10 x 4.3MW V136 turbines (136m rotor, 77m tower, 145m tip height) and maintain the wind farm under a 30 year agreement. Higgins will undertake the civil balance of plant works with ElectroNet providing the electrical balance of plant works. PowerNet will construct a new 33kV line to the Gore substation.

Last year Mercury’s wind generation produced 1,269GWh, and this will increase as Turitea South comes onstream, with Kaiwera following in late 2023.

Turitea Wind Farm is scheduled for completion mid 2023, and will be NZ’s largest wind farm with enough generation to power 375,000 EVs or 120,000 households.

Mercury supplies enough renewable generation to power around 18% of New Zealand’s current electricity needs through renewable generation (wind, hydro and geothermal)

Point of Order notes that with more than 3.8 TWh of currently committed generation projects set to be built between 2020 and 2024, the electricity sector is demonstrating commitment consistent with Transpower forecasts for future demand (3.2 TWh and 3.8TWh of new renewable gen between 2020 and 2025 respectively).

What that signals is that NZ has made better progress, and at far less cost, towards decarbonising electricity production than many other countries, including its near neighbour Australia.

Point of Order is a blog focused on politics and the economy run by veteran newspaper reporters Bob Edlin and Ian Templeton

1 comment:

DeeM said...

So we're getting 219MW of new geothermal which is fine because it's reliable and non-weather dependent.

We're getting 700MW of new solar and 459MW of new wind generation. Those figures are nominal generating capacity figures. In other words, this is what you get in optimal generating conditions ONLY - perfect wind conditions and sun strength.
In reality, solar and onshore wind farms only deliver about 35% of their nominal capacity on average and at times deliver nothing at all.

So let's look at our reliable backup generation. Hydro runs baseload anyway and there's no extra capacity there.
So it's all down to Huntly Power Station which can burn coal and gas and a few other gas stations.

Electricity demand is forecast to increase significantly with the predicted uptake in EVs.
But we've banned any oil and gas exploration so we're running down our existing fields and coal is strongly discouraged.

HPS has already decommissioned 2 of its 4 coal/gas units at the old Huntly Station. And there's no plans to build anymore.

A sensible person might ask, what happens when our existing gas runs out and we've pretty much eliminated coal? How will we ensure reliable, but VERY EXPENSIVE, back-up generation?

The government should be looking at the UK and Europe at the moment. But they won't be. They're too busy patting themselves on the back, along with our energy generators who should really know better.

Once again, with the benefit of hindsight, our government blunders down the same disastrous energy road tapping away with their white stick.