The latest Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll was released yesterday and shows a return to a majority for the centre-right. National has eked out a 3% gain over the last month, while Labour has slid almost 2%. Act too has grown by nearly 2% meaning the centre-right could govern alone if these findings came to fruition in a general election.
Party Support Change from last month
National 37.0% +3.0
Labour 33.4% -1.8
Greens 9.9% +0.4
ACT 12.4% +1.9
Maori 1.5% -2.0
NZ First 1.6% -1.0
Other 4.2% -0.5
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament, assuming all electorate seats are held:
Jacinda Ardern drops another 3 points to 37% while Christopher Luxon bounces up from 20% to 26%. David Seymour has a creditable 6.6% and in fourth place as Preferred PM is Chloe Swarbrick on a respectable 3.2%. That is higher than both Green co-leaders combined, with Marama Davidson on 1.4% and James Shaw 1.0%.
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Preferred Prime Minister This month Change from last month
Jacinda Ardern 36.5% -3.0
Christopher Luxon 25.9% +6.4
David Seymour 6.6% -1.1
Chloe Swarbrick 3.2% –
Winston Peters 2.6% -1.6
Marama Davidson 1.4% –
James Shaw 1.0% –
There is still more than a year to go until the general election in 2023 so much could happen in that time. However, the tide is still going out on Labour and still rising for the centre-right.
If Jacinda Ardern decides to quit, Labour will have a bloodbath on its hands.
Labour has finally ditched most of its draconian Covid controls, and issues polling shows you why. It no longer rates as a significant area of concern.
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Labour is still aligned with Covid hero worship, but it is now the least concerning issue for voters. The four biggest concerns are Cost of Living (22%), Economy (15%), Health (7%), Law and Order (6%). In all of those areas Labour is horribly exposed and they literally have nothing in the kitbag to deal with any of those issues. Health is continuing to be a bugbear despite billions of extra spending in the area and a multi-million dollar decoupling of the health governance system in favour of a racist separation of health funding favouring Maori.
Their continued push towards co-governance is going to further erode their support as people begin to realise that Labour is ideologically wedded to the concept and is pushing on with the radical overhaul of Health, Justice, and Water, placing disproportionate control in the hands of Maori elites.
Labour are in a terrible place, but they will push on with their reforms because they know that National is the party of the status quo and will do little or nothing to unwind Labour’s reforms.
Cam Slater is a New Zealand-based blogger, best known for his role in Dirty Politics and publishing the Whale Oil Beef Hooked blog, which operated from 2005 until it closed in 2019. This article was first published HERE
6 comments:
I get the impression that Luxon's preferred PM figures are controlled ONLY by Ardern's performance.
He's doing next to nothing to make people pick him. It's just that for many, when Ardern's popularity falls he is the default position.
Good to see ACT rising. We need all the ACT MPs we can get to try to steer National to making lasting and meaningful change if they form a coalition.
I am unsure if I am more astonished that 1 in 3 still think the dictator Ardern is worthy of a vote, or that 1 in 4 think vapid Luxon is an acceptable alternative. 2023 will be an election of the least worst?
A plague on both their houses. Hope it's just that the ACT admirers are holding their fire. Theirs is truly the only voice of reason.
Maybe I'm a bit dim. What's stopping all Centre right voters double ticking for the Act party.
Any and every National supporter must surley see how impudent they are.
At least Seymour values our Democracy, and is not afraid to say so.
Threatening to abandon National for ACT is never going to cause Luxon to grow a pair.
National’s strategists have calculated that if they tacitly go along with co-governance the cohort of mostly angry oldies who hate it will party-vote ACT, with whom National is sure to be in coalition, so nothing much will be lost. Whereas if they openly oppose co-governance hundreds of thousands of undecided mostly younger voters in the middle are liable to swing to Labour or the Greens, if only because they fear a backlash should Maori fail to get their way.
The way to put the wind up National is to threaten to defect to Winston or one of the whacky minority parties. Winston would be a difficult partner, and is still capable of throwing in his lot with the left post-election for the right baubles; and a party-vote for one of the whackies would be wasted.
Incidentally Cam, what grounds are there for thinking Ardern might decide to quit?
ardern will quit because she doesn't like to lose. she'd much rather prefer to exit and take a role at UN or WEF to retain her social media darling status. aoc will follow her footsteps...
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